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How it works

WhatStreet shows, in plain numbers, what traders are pricing for each stock or coin this week. It is not a forecast and not advice.

One question per stock

Every card answers one question: will it end this week higher than it ended last week?

Example (made-up numbers): a stock closed last Friday at $100. The card says 62%.
That means: traders are pricing about a 6 in 10 chance that it closes this Friday above $100.

Below that, the card shows where the price is likely to close on Friday, one round price per row.

How to read a card

62%	Chance it ends this week higher than last Friday's close. Very small or large values show as "<1%" or ">99%".
Sat, Oct 24: 51% now 62%	What that chance was at the start of the week, and what it is now.
$400 44%	44% chance it closes on Friday near $400. The note under each card spells out exactly what "near" means, for example "$400 = closing between $395 and $405".
was 8%	The chance for that row at the start of the week.
Dark bar	The most likely price above today's price, and the most likely price below it.
now $399.88	Where the price is right now. Rows above it need a rise; rows below it need a fall.

All rows on a card add up to 100%.

Where the numbers come from

For every big stock and coin there is an options market, where people pay for contracts that win if the price ends above or below some level on a set date. The price people pay for each contract tells you how likely the market thinks that outcome is. We read all those prices and turn them into the plain chances you see.

Details for the curious

For each expiry we take the forward price from put–call parity, read the implied volatility of every out-of-the-money option from its mid price, smooth it, and take the chance of ending above each level straight from how call prices change with the strike (Breeden–Litzenberger). This keeps the skew, so odds always fall as the level rises. Crypto uses Deribit; US stocks use listed options (OPRA) via Tiger Brokers.

Do the numbers hold up?

We checked them against what actually happened, on rules written down before we looked:

Bitcoin and Ether, 2019–2026 (about 390 weeks each): weeks priced near 70% "up" ended up about 7 times in 10.
16 US stocks, past year (about 790 stock-weeks): weeks priced near 70% "up" ended up about 6 to 7 times in 10.

So the numbers are roughly right on average. Any single week can still go the other way: 70% means it fails about 3 times in 10.

What the numbers are not

Not a prediction. They are what traders are paying for right now, and they change all the time.
They follow the price. If the stock jumps, the chance of "ending higher" jumps too. That is arithmetic, not new information.
Late in the week they get extreme. On Friday afternoon a stock already up 7% will show close to 100%. The question is almost settled.
They include a cost for insurance. People pay extra to protect against drops, so big-drop chances can read a little high.
Very small and very large numbers are rough. Anything under about 2% or over 98% rests on thinly traded contracts.

Why we don't show "which way the money is betting"

Every option has a buyer and a seller, so a pile of money at a price is not a bet in one direction. We also tested whether option money flow could predict the week (crypto, 104 weeks; US stocks, one year). It did not add anything beyond the odds already shown. So the stock page shows open positions by price as size only, not direction.

How fresh it is

US stocks: updated about every 2 minutes while the market is open. When it is closed, you see the last close.
Bitcoin and Ether: updated about every 15 seconds, all day, every day. The crypto week ends Friday 08:00 UTC, so for crypto "last week" means the last Friday 08:00 UTC settle.
The site can lag the latest numbers by up to about 3–4 minutes. The time at the bottom of each stock page shows when its numbers were last computed.

Sources

Deribit public market data for Bitcoin and Ether. US listed options (OPRA) via Tiger Brokers. Company logos belong to their owners and are used only to identify the companies.

Not advice

WhatStreet shows market data for information only. It does not know your situation and does not recommend any trade. Markets can and do move against the odds shown here.